Inflation and Economic Security of the Older Population

Abstract

Because the older population are net lenders, they tend to be economically vulnerable to high and increasing inflation. This research used data from the Health and Retirement Study and its supplement, the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey, to assess the effects of inflation on the older population. The research employed two models. The first is an asset valuation model, which addresses how, given portfolio composition, household wealth changes in response to a permanent and unanticipated increase in inflation. The second is a simulation model to estimate how the economic position of a representative sample of the older population will evolve over the rest of their lifetime after an unanticipated increase in inflation. The model assumes an annual inflation rate of 2%, which increases permanently to 6% in 2020. The analyses provide insight on the effects of the inflation spike that occurred over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how results vary by education and marital status. We find overall that the typical person was likely affected only modestly by the inflation increase. The largest effects are concentrated among households with greater economic resources because a greater share of their portfolio tends to not be indexed to inflation. Conversely, those with fewer economic resources are relatively better protected from increases in inflation because Social Security benefits, which are adjusted for changes in the cost-of-living, constitute the most important retirement asset for them.