Addressing Climate Adaptation Gaps in Mountainous Regions: A Scenario Planning Case Study of Langtang Valley, Nepal

Abstract

This research focuses on developing actionable adaptation strategies for vulnerable mountain communities by enhancing the accessibility and usability of climate data. In this study, the team utilizes novel scenario planning approaches in an analysis of Langtang Valley, Nepal. By using a mixed-method approach, integrating both climate modeling and stakeholder input, the team developed five plausible climate scenarios to inform local adaptation strategies. This study demonstrates how climate data can be made more accessible and digestible through scenario planning approaches, allowing all levels of local stakeholders to engage in discussions about adaptation priorities. Integrating expert interviews, community surveys, and multi-stakeholder workshops, this research provides a holistic approach to adaptation planning, ensuring that both scientific knowledge and local perspectives inform strategies for building climate resilience in Langtang Valley. Quantitative analysis was conducted using CMIP6 climate models to project future temperature, precipitation, and humidity trends, while qualitative insights were gathered to contextualize these projections and prioritize community concerns. Three sectors—water, agriculture, and tourism—were identified as the most at-risk sectors within the Langtang Valley’s mountainous community, which are deeply intersectional and influenced by both environmental challenges and socioeconomic factors. Designed to be replicable across Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) communities, research produced a scenario planning framework that structures community-driven climate discussions, equipping local actors with the ability to visualize and respond to different climate futures. This framework strengthens participatory adaptation planning, ensuring climate projections are framed in ways that are locally relevant and actionable. By improving public awareness and increasing access to climate projections, this initiative enhances the ability of communities to prepare for and adapt to climate risks. Ultimately, this study highlights the critical role of community-driven adaptation strategies that integrate scientific data and local knowledge to address the complex climate risks facing high-altitude regions.