Long-range scenario construction for technology assessment
dc.contributor.author | Chen, Kan | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Jarboe, Kenan | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Wolfe, Janet | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2006-04-07T18:03:03Z | |
dc.date.available | 2006-04-07T18:03:03Z | |
dc.date.issued | 1981-08 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Chen, Kan, Jarboe, Kenan, Wolfe, Janet (1981/08)."Long-range scenario construction for technology assessment." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 20(1): 27-40. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/24286> | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V71-45K6TXF-G9/2/f144aa34d080d3a9ef797a85adda523d | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/24286 | |
dc.description.abstract | Long-range scenario construction is an integral part of a technology assessment. Alternative future scenarios provide the socioeconomic context in which technological systems can be forecast and assessed. Therefore, scenarios must be constructed in order to meet the information needs of all other portions of the study. One scenario construction approach, designed to meet this need, consists of the following elements: emphasis on range and consistency, specifically with respect to the technology assessed, combination of judgment and discipline, gradual divergence, and top-down variable disaggregation. As illustrated in an application to aviation communications technology assessment, this approach provides relevant information to the other portions of the study. Thus the scenarios provide the backdrop upon which the remainder of the study rests. | en_US |
dc.format.extent | 1028733 bytes | |
dc.format.extent | 3118 bytes | |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.format.mimetype | text/plain | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
dc.title | Long-range scenario construction for technology assessment | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.rights.robots | IndexNoFollow | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Engineering (General) | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Engineering | en_US |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationum | University of Michigan's Program in Technology Assessment at Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationum | University of Michigan's Program in Technology Assessment at Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationum | University of Michigan's Program in Technology Assessment at Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA | en_US |
dc.description.bitstreamurl | http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/24286/1/0000552.pdf | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(81)90039-1 | en_US |
dc.identifier.source | Technological Forecasting and Social Change | en_US |
dc.owningcollname | Interdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed |
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