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Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology
Osherson, Daniel; Shafir, Eldar; Smith, Edward E.
Osherson, Daniel; Shafir, Eldar; Smith, Edward E.
1994
Citation:Osherson, Daniel, Shafir, Eldar, Smith, Edward E. (1994)."Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology." Cognition 50(1-3): 299-313. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/31673>
Abstract: Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.
