Modeling the Efficacy of the Ganga Action Plan's Restoration of the Ganga River, India

Abstract

Abstract. To combat rising levels of water pollution in the Ganges River, the Indian government initiated the Ganga Action Plan (GAP) in 1984. After twenty years, it is a common perception that the GAP has failed to achieve the goals of a cleaner river. Using available government data on pollution levels and hydrology, I undertook an of the GAP efficacy for fifteen pollution parameters across 52 water quality sampling points monitored by India’s Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) within the Ganga Basin. Dissolved oxygen, BOD, and COD showed a significant improvement of water quality after twenty years. In addition, fecal and total coliform levels, as well as concentrations of calcium, magnesium, and TDS all showed a significant decline. Building on this analysis, a GIS analysis was used to create a spatial model of the majority of the Ganga River network using a reach-based ecological classification approach. Using recent GAP monitoring data, a multiple linear regression model of expected pollutant loads within each reach (VSEC unit) was created. This model was then used to inventory water quality across the entire basin, based on CPCB criteria. My analysis showed 208 river km were class A, 1,142 river km were class B, 684 river km were class C, 1,614 river km were class D, and 10,403 river km were class E. In 2004, field measurements were taken at six major cities along the Ganga mainstem which showed lower concentrations of nitrogen predicted from my model, and roughly the same values of phosphate as the model provided. Although the GAP did not result in significant improvements in all major water quality parameters, the fact that most water quality parameters did not significantly decline, even after a doubling of the region’s population during the twenty-year period, does reflect a significant level of success with the law.