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Extrapolating human probability judgment
dc.contributor.authorOsherson, Daniel N.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMyers, Tracy S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorShafir, Eldar B.en_US
dc.contributor.authorStob, Michaelen_US
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Edward E.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2006-09-11T13:55:29Z
dc.date.available2006-09-11T13:55:29Z
dc.date.issued1994-03en_US
dc.identifier.citationOsherson, Daniel; Smith, Edward E.; Myers, Tracy S.; Shafir, Eldar; Stob, Michael; (1994). "Extrapolating human probability judgment." Theory and Decision 36(2): 103-129. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/43846>en_US
dc.identifier.issn1573-7187en_US
dc.identifier.issn0040-5833en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/43846
dc.description.abstractWe advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.en_US
dc.format.extent1432981 bytes
dc.format.extent3115 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.format.mimetypetext/plain
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherKluwer Academic Publishers; Springer Science+Business Mediaen_US
dc.subject.otherEconomics / Management Scienceen_US
dc.subject.otherEconomics/Management Science, Generalen_US
dc.subject.otherMethodology of the Social Sciencesen_US
dc.subject.otherProbabilityen_US
dc.subject.otherJudgmenten_US
dc.subject.otherPsychologyen_US
dc.subject.otherOperation Research/Decision Theoryen_US
dc.titleExtrapolating human probability judgmenten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPhilosophyen_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelStatistics and Numeric Dataen_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelSocial Sciences (General)en_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelSocial Sciencesen_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelScienceen_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelHumanitiesen_US
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Revieweden_US
dc.contributor.affiliationumUniversity of Michigan, USAen_US
dc.contributor.affiliationotherIDIAP, 1920 Martigny, Case Postale 609, Valais, Switzerlanden_US
dc.contributor.affiliationotherPrinceton University, USAen_US
dc.contributor.affiliationotherCalvin College, USAen_US
dc.contributor.affiliationotherM.I.T., USAen_US
dc.contributor.affiliationumcampusAnn Arboren_US
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43846/1/11238_2005_Article_BF01079209.pdfen_US
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01079209en_US
dc.identifier.sourceTheory and Decisionen_US
dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


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