Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message
dc.contributor.author | Singer, J. David | en_US |
dc.contributor.author | Small, Melvin | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2006-09-11T16:04:46Z | |
dc.date.available | 2006-09-11T16:04:46Z | |
dc.date.issued | 1974-09 | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Singer, J. David; Small, Melvin; (1974). "Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message." Policy Sciences 5(3): 271-296. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/45454> | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0032-2687 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 1573-0891 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/45454 | |
dc.description.abstract | Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual “state of the world” message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation. | en_US |
dc.format.extent | 1794751 bytes | |
dc.format.extent | 3115 bytes | |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.format.mimetype | text/plain | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | Kluwer Academic Publishers; Springer Science+Business Media | en_US |
dc.subject.other | Social Sciences, General | en_US |
dc.subject.other | Political Science | en_US |
dc.subject.other | Economic Policy | en_US |
dc.title | Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevel | Economics | en_US |
dc.subject.hlbtoplevel | Business | en_US |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationum | University of Michigan, Michigan, USA | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationother | Wayne State University, Wayne, USA | en_US |
dc.contributor.affiliationumcampus | Ann Arbor | en_US |
dc.description.bitstreamurl | http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45454/1/11077_2004_Article_BF00144286.pdf | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00144286 | en_US |
dc.identifier.source | Policy Sciences | en_US |
dc.owningcollname | Interdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed |
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