Sectoral effects of reductions in NATO military expenditures in the major industrialized and developing countries

Abstract

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the sectoral effects of (1) a 25 percent unilateral reduction of military expenditures in the individual NATO countries and (2) a 25 percent multilateral reduction of military expenditures in all of the NATO countries combined. Our principal findings suggest that the overall effects of the unilateral and multilateral reductions are not substantial and that the results of the two reductions are qualitatively similar. The sectoral results, which are also broadly similar in the two experiments, suggest that sectors such as basic metals and metal products, durable goods, and community, social, and personal services might be in need of transitional adjustment assistance for displaced workers in the event that the reductions in military expenditures would in fact be carried out.