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dc.contributor.authorTuljapurkar, Shripad
dc.contributor.authorLee, Ronald D.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Qi
dc.date.accessioned2007-04-25T15:14:25Z
dc.date.available2007-04-25T15:14:25Z
dc.date.issued2004-01
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/50546
dc.description.abstractProbabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to make probability distributions for terminal vital rates, and smooth trajectories are followed over time. We use analysis and examples to show several key differences between these methods: serial correlations in the forecast are much smaller in LT; the variance in LT models of vital rates (especially fertility) is much higher than in RS models that are based on official expert scenarios; trajectories in LT are much more irregular than in RS; probability intervals in LT tend to widen faster over forecast time. Newer versions of RS have been developed that reduce or eliminate some of these differences.en
dc.description.sponsorshipSocial Security Administrationen
dc.format.extent483625 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherMichigan Retirement Research Center, University of Michigan, P.O. Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48104en
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWP 2004-073en
dc.titleRandom Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecastsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPopulation and Demography
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelSocial Sciences
dc.contributor.affiliationotherStanford Universityen
dc.contributor.affiliationotherUniversity of Californiaen
dc.contributor.affiliationumcampusAnn Arboren
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/50546/1/wp073.pdfen_US
dc.owningcollnameRetirement Research Center, Michigan (MRRC)


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