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Stochastic Rates of Return for Social Security Under Various Policy Scenarios

dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Michael W.
dc.contributor.authorYamagata, Hisashi
dc.contributor.authorTuljapurkar, Shripad
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we compute distributions of rates of return by cohort for the Social Security retirement system, using a combination of historical data and stochastic forecasts of productivity and mortality rates. Since our forecasts of productivity and mortality are stochastic, the rate-ofreturn estimates themselves are stochastic; that is, we compute an entire distribution of rates for each cohort. We repeat these calculations under a variety of policy scenarios designed to bring the trust fund into future solvency with roughly 50% probability. This allows us to examine the impact of various schemes on different cohorts. Policies which delay reform the longest and impact taxpayers the greatest dramatically concentrate the impact of reform on the youngest cohorts. Reforms which are more immediate and focused on retirees tend to spread the cost of reform across generations more evenly.en
dc.description.sponsorshipSocial Security Administrationen
dc.format.extent586228 bytes
dc.publisherMichigan Retirement Research Center, University of Michigan, P.O. Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48104en
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWP 2001-010en
dc.titleStochastic Rates of Return for Social Security Under Various Policy Scenariosen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPopulation and Demography
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelSocial Sciences
dc.contributor.affiliationotherMountain View Researchen
dc.contributor.affiliationotherDepartment of Demography, UC Berkeleyen
dc.contributor.affiliationotherStanford Universityen
dc.contributor.affiliationumcampusAnn Arboren
dc.owningcollnameRetirement and Disability Research Center, Michigan (MRDRC)

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