Private-Sector Credit in Central & Eastern Europe: New (Over) Shooting Stars?
Égert, Balázs; Backè, Peter; Zumer, Tina
2006-11-01
Abstract
This paper analyzes the equilibrium level of private credit to GDP in 11 Central and Eastern European countries in order to see whether the high credit growth recently observed in some of these countries led to above equilibrium private credit to- GDP levels. We use estimation results obtained for a panel of small open OECD economies (out-of-sample sample) to derive the equilibrium credit level for a panel of transition economies (in-sample panel). We opt for this (out-of-sample) approach because the coefficient estimates for transition economies are fairly unstable. We show that there is a large amount of uncertainty to determine the equilibrium level of private credit. Yet our results indicate that a number of countries are very close or even above the estimated equilibrium levels, whereas others are still well below the equilibrium level.Other Identifiers
RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-852
Series/Report no.
852
Subjects
Private Credit, Credit Growth, Transition Economies
Types
Working Paper
Metadata
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