Crash risk among teen drivers: identification and prediction of excess risk

Abstract

This study used school-based survey data from 6,870 students, and Michigan State Police crash records and Michigan Secretary of State driver history records to identify crash types for which teen drivers are at excess risk, and to examine psychosocial and behavioral factors that predicted the crash types. Rates and rate ratios were used in combination to identify the crash types that represent the most serious threat to teen drivers, relative to adults. The crash types that represent the greatest risk to teenage men included: road departure/passenger; speeding/nighttime; single vehicle/road departure/speeding; weekend/nighttime/passenger; speeding/weather/nighttime; passenger/nighttime; improper lane use/passenger; single vehicle/road departure; single vehicle/driver action; speeding/weather; alcohol/passenger/ speeding; alcohol/passenger/nighttime; alcohol/nighttime/speeding; alcohol/weekend/speeding; alcohol/passenger/weekend; alcohol/speeding; alcohol/speeding/casualty; casualty/passenger/ nighttime; casualty/road departure/nighttime; casualty/speeding; casualty/overturn; casualty/road departure; and casualty/weekend/nighttime. For teenage women, weekend/nighttime/ passenger, passenger/nighttime, road departure/passenger, speeding/nighttime, speeding/weather/nighttime, driver action/weather/nighttime, improper lane use/passenger, alcohol/passenger/speeding, alcohol/nighttime/speeding, alcohol/passenger/weekend, alcohol/weekend/ speeding, alcohol/speeding/casualty, alcohol/passenger, alcohol/passenger/casualty, alcohol/ passenger/nighttime, casualty/passenger/nighttime, casualty/overturn, casualty/road departure/nighttime, casualty/weekend/nighttime, casualty/weekend/nighttime, casualty/ speeding, and casualty/passenger/alcohol. Crash risk declined rapidly with each additional year of age for teen drivers, and teen and adult women had higher rates than their male counterparts for all crash types, with the exception of alcohol-involved crashes. Implications for teen driver training, supervision, and graduated driver licensing programs were discussed.