The future of personal transportation in megacities of the world

Abstract

This study examined the future of personal transportation in megacities of the world. Of particular interest was the future role of personal vehicles. To span ranges of geographical, political, and economic factors, the following 15 megacities were included in the analysis: Chicago, New York, London, Moscow, Paris, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Bangalore, Calcutta, Delhi, Mumbai, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. The current and future values of the following factors were considered: population, wealth, level of motorization, public transportation, and modal split. Also discussed were selected urban transportation plans and strategies. Based on the analysis, projections through 2025 were made for each megacity for changes in ownership of personal vehicles; distance traveled by personal vehicle within inner core, for commuting, and for leisure; and for number of road fatalities. The projections were based on treating the different transportation modes as independent and exclusive options. However, there is growing implementation and use of new mobility networks—integrated networks that provide a variety of connected and IT-enhanced transportation options door-to-door. Although such networks are expected to reduce reliance on personal vehicles, the magnitude and nature of this effect remain to be ascertained.