View Item 

Show simple item record

A Continuous-Outcome Expected Utility Theory of War
dc.contributor.authorMorrow, James D.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-13T19:12:49Z
dc.date.available2010-04-13T19:12:49Z
dc.date.issued1985en_US
dc.identifier.citationMorrow, James (1985). "A Continuous-Outcome Expected Utility Theory of War." Journal of Conflict Resolution 29(3): 473-502. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/67171>en_US
dc.identifier.issn0022-0027en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/67171
dc.description.abstractA continuous-outcome expected utility model is presented that generalizes the expected utility theory of Bueno de Mesquita. An examination of the more general model uncovers several unstated assumptions within and produces new conclusions from, while supporting the basic logic of, the expected utility theory. Among the new conclusions is the finding that nations shifting their level of acceptable outcomes to a conflict upward or downward after fighting starts is perfectly consistent with a rational model. The derivations demonstrate the value of theoretical articulation, a task too often neglected in quantitative international relations, and provide a sound logical basis for the construction of systemic theories based upon the expected utility theory.en_US
dc.format.extent3108 bytes
dc.format.extent2814497 bytes
dc.format.mimetypetext/plain
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.publisherSage Publicationsen_US
dc.titleA Continuous-Outcome Expected Utility Theory of Waren_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPolitical Scienceen_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelGovernment, Politics and Lawen_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelSocial Sciencesen_US
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Revieweden_US
dc.contributor.affiliationumDepartment of Political Science, University of Michiganen_US
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67171/2/10.1177_0022002785029003005.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/0022002785029003005en_US
dc.identifier.sourceJournal of Conflict Resolutionen_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceAltfeld, M. and B. Bueno de Mesquita (1979) “Choosing sides in wars.”Int. Studies Q.23: 87-112.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceApostol, T. M. (1973) Mathematical Analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBlainey, G. (1973) The Causes of War. New York: Free Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBueno de Mesquita, B. (forthcoming) “The War Trap revisited: a revised expected utility model.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBueno de Mesquita, B. (1981a) The War Trap. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceBueno de Mesquita, B. (1981b) “Risk, power distributions, and the likelihood of war.”Int. Studies Q.25: 541-568.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceDegroot, M. H. (1975) Probability and Statistics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceLuce, R. D. and H. Raiffa (1957) Games and Decisions. New York: John Wiley.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMajeski, S. J. and D. Sylvan (1984) “Simple choices and complex calculations: a critique of The War Trap.”J. of Conflict Resolution28: 316-340.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMaoz, Z. (1983) “Resolve, capabilities, and the outcomes of interstate disputes, 1816-1976.”J. of Conflict Resolution27: 195-229.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorgan, T. C. (1984a) “A spatial model of crisis bargaining.” Presented at the 1984 annual meeting of the International Studies Association.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorgan, T. C. (1984b) “Power differentials, resolve, and bargaining in international crisis: a spatial model.” Presented at the 1984 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorgenthau, H. J. (1973) Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Knopf.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorrow, J. D. (1984a) “A spatial theory of international conflict.” Presented at the 1984 annual meeting of the International Studies Association.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceMorrow, J. D. (1984b) “Some tests of a spatial theory of international conflict.” Presented at the 1984 meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceOrganski, A.F.K. (1968) World Politics. New York: Knopf.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceOrganski, A.F.K. and J. Kugler (1980) The War Ledger. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferencePalmer, D. R. (1978) Summons of the Trumpet: U.S.-Vietnam in Perspective. San Rafael, CA: Presidio Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferencePetersen, W. J. (1982) “Conflict resolution and the status quo.” Presented at the 1982 annual meeting of the International Studies Association.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceRiker, W. H. and P. C. Ordeshook (1973) An Introduction to Positive Political Theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSavage, L. J. (1972) The Foundations of Statistics. New York: Dover.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSnyder, G. H. and P. Diesing (1977) Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision-Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceSummers, H. G., Jr. (1981) On Strategy: The Vietnam War in Context. Washington, DC: USGPO.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWagner, R. H. (1984) “War and expected utility theory.”World Politics36: 407-423.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceWittman, D. (1979) “How a war ends: a rational model approach.”J. of Conflict Resolution23: 743-763.en_US
dc.identifier.citedreferenceZagare, F. C. (1982) “Review of The War Trap.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.76: 738-739.en_US
dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


Files in this item

Name:
10.1177_0022002785029003005.pdf
Size:
2.684MB
Format:
PDF
View/Open

Show simple item record

Remediation of Harmful Language

The University of Michigan Library aims to describe library materials in a way that respects the people and communities who create, use, and are represented in our collections. Report harmful or offensive language in catalog records, finding aids, or elsewhere in our collections anonymously through our metadata feedback form. More information at Remediation of Harmful Language.

Accessibility

If you are unable to use this file in its current format, please select the Contact Us link and we can modify it to make it more accessible to you.