Patterns in International Warfare, 1816-1965

Abstract

Patterns in international violence are discovered through the quantitative analysis of international wars which resulted in more than 1,000 battle-connected deaths. Between 1816 and 1965, members of the state system participated in 50 such interstate wars and 43 such colonial and imperial conflicts. Although no secular trends are evident in terms of the fre quency, magnitude, severity, and intensity of these wars, the data suggest a twenty-year cycle in the magnitude of systemic war. Over two thirds of all of the wars began in either the spring or the autumn. Major powers have engaged in a dis proportionate number of wars and have suffered the most bat tle-connected deaths. These same powers, however, have won most of their wars. Those on the victorious side have often been the initiators of military hostilities. Enduring military friendships and enmities have been uncommon over the 150- year period. Further use of these basic war data should be helpful in the assault upon the centuries-old problem of the causes of war.