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Hindsight and Causality
dc.contributor.authorWasserman, Daviden_US
dc.contributor.authorLempert, Richard O.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHastie, Reiden_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-14T14:11:23Z
dc.date.available2010-04-14T14:11:23Z
dc.date.issued1991en_US
dc.identifier.citationWasserman, David; Lempert, Richard; Hastie, Reid (1991). "Hindsight and Causality." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 17(1): 30-35. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/68984>en_US
dc.identifier.issn0146-1672en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/68984
dc.description.abstractWhen people know how an event turned out, they are usually unable to reproduce the judgments they would have made without outcome knowledge. Furthermore, they are unaware of their inability to recapture their pre-outcome state of mind. This tendency to overestimate what they would have known without the outcome knowledge is called "hindsight." An experiment explored the moderating effects of the type of cause to which the outcome was attributed on the magnitude of the hindsight effect. When the outcome was attributed to unforeseeable "chance" factors, such as an unexpected storm or an earthquake, the hindsight effect was virtually eliminated. When no causal attribution was provided or when a plausible "deterministic" cause (human skill or lack of skill) was cited, subjects' judgments showed sizable hindsight effects. These. findings are interpreted as supporting Fischhoff's "creeping determinism" hypothesis and as providing evidence that the hindsight effect is a by-product of adaptive learning from feedback.en_US
dc.format.extent3108 bytes
dc.format.extent1015337 bytes
dc.format.mimetypetext/plain
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.publisherSage Publicationsen_US
dc.titleHindsight and Causalityen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelPsychologyen_US
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelSocial Sciencesen_US
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Revieweden_US
dc.contributor.affiliationumDepartment of Sociology, University of Michigan University of Michigan Law Schoolen_US
dc.contributor.affiliationotherInstitute for Philosophy and Public Policy University of Marylanden_US
dc.contributor.affiliationotherCenter for Research on Judgment and Policy University of Colorado, Boulderen_US
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68984/2/10.1177_0146167291171005.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1177/0146167291171005en_US
dc.identifier.sourcePersonality and Social Psychology Bulletinen_US
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dc.owningcollnameInterdisciplinary and Peer-Reviewed


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