Mortality and macroeconomic fluctuations in contemporary Sweden

Abstract

Recent research has provided strong evidence that, in the United States in particular and in high- or middle-income economies in general, mortality tends to evolve better in recessions than in expansions. It has been suggested that Sweden may be an exception to this pattern. The present investigation shows, however, that in the period 1968–2003 mortality oscillated procyclically in Sweden, deviating from its trend upward during expansions and downward during recessions. This pattern is evidenced by the oscillations of life expectancy, total mortality, and age- and sex-specific mortality rates at the national level, and also by regional mortality rates for the major demographic groups during recent decades. Results are robust for different economic indicators, methods of detrending, and models. In lag regression models macroeconomic effects on annual mortality tend to appear lagged one year. As in other countries, traffic mortality rises in expansions and declines in recessions, and the same is found for total cardiovascular mortality. However, macroeconomic effects on ischemic heart disease mortality appearing at lag two are hard to interpret. Reasons for the procyclical oscillations of mortality, for in-consistent results found in previous studies, as well as for the differences observed between Sweden and the United States are discussed.