Recent changes in the age composition of U.S. drivers: implications for the extent, safety, and environmental consequences of personal transportation

Abstract

This study examined the changes from 1983 to 2008 in the percentage of persons with a driver’s license as a function of age. The results indicate that, over the past 25 years, there was a substantial decrease in the percentage of young people with a driver’s license, and a substantial increase in the percentage of older people with a driver’s license. Furthermore, for cohorts who were between 20 and 44 in 1983 (and thus between 45 and 69 in 2008), the percentage of licensed drivers has not changed appreciably between 1983 and 2008. This finding suggests that, for all practical purposes, all those who wanted to get a driver’s license did so by age 20. Finally, for cohorts who were between 45 and 59 in 1983 (and thus between 70 and 84 in 2008), this percentage dropped substantially. This finding reflects the giving up of driver’s licenses with advanced age. The potential implications of future licensing trends on vehicle demand, safety, and environment were briefly discussed.