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Alofs, Karen
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Great Lakes
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- Creator:
- King, Katelyn, Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi, Brant, Cory, and Alofs, Karen
- Description:
- Ice cover on the Great Lakes plays an important role in regional climate, supports tourism and recreation, and provides ecological habitat. As the climate warms, ice cover in the Great Lakes is expected to decline, which in turn will create more lake effect precipitation, reduce ice cover for recreation, and alter habitat for fishes. Therefore, it is important to understand historical ice patterns to better understand and predict future ice cover on the lakes. However, Great Lakes ice cover data prior to 1973 is scarce, due to the limited routine satellite observations. Our dataset aims to fill this gap by providing historical spatial ice duration layers to be used for modeling species distributions. and ArcGIS Pro ( https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-pro/overview), QGIS ( https://qgis.org/) or other spatial data software will be required to view this dataset.
- Keyword:
- ice, Great Lakes, Superior, Michigan, Ontario, Erie, Huron, and historical
- Citation to related publication:
- King, K., Fujisaki-Manome, A., Brant, C., Cohn, D., Peng, I., Alofs, K., Reconstructing Great Lakes air temperature and ice dynamics data back to 1897. Under Review
- Discipline:
- Science
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Great Lakes Historical Ice Dynamics
User Collection
- Creator:
- King, Katelyn B., Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi, Brant, Cory, and Alofs, Karen
- Description:
- This collection includes raster layers (as a geodatabase) with ice metrics for each of the Great Lakes representing the historical time period of 1898-1960. One metric is spatial mean ice duration (the number of days per year when the lake was frozen) and the other is coefficient of variation of ice duration (variability across years).
- Keyword:
- Great Lakes, Ice , Ice duration, Ice variability, Historical , Huron, Ontario, Erie, Michigan, and Superior
- Discipline:
- Science
1Works -
- Creator:
- Fuller, Jennifer, Rowan, Erin, Landgraf, Ava, Alofs, Karen, Foufopoulos, Johannes, and Gronewold, Andrew
- Description:
- This study investigates the rapid decline of black tern (Chlidonias niger) over eight years in one of Michigan’s largest colonies, Lake St. Clair. 1. Nesting Success Model: A multiple logistic regression with a binomial (logit-link) fit using the glm() function from the ‘stats’ package in R (55) to determine the influence of habitat and biological predictors on nesting survival. 2. ArcMap visualization of Nesting Success: To visualize the geographic extent of the habitat’s potential to predispose nests’ vulnerability, the coefficients and intercept from our selected GLM were applied to raster layers in ArcMap using the Raster Calculator Tool. 3. Population Change & Habitat Extent: To quantify sub-colony breeding pair population size and their response to changes in sub-colony habitat in the geospatial model, we applied a general linear mixed model (GLMM) using the lmer() function from the ‘lme4’ package in R (55). Predictor variables were chosen a priori, and included the area of open water, uninhabitable vegetation (NDVI>0.72), any habitable area, and area with >50% hatch success.
- Keyword:
- black terns, wetlands, ecology, climate change, lake levels, Great Lakes, waterbirds, ornithology, general linear model, geospatial, GIS, nesting success, avian, and breeding
- Citation to related publication:
- Fuller, J., Rowan, E., Landgraf, A., Alofs, K., Foufopoulos, J., Gronewold, A., (2021). Collapse of a Black Tern Colony (Chlidonias niger) as a Result of Climate Change Driven Lake-Level Extremes and Anthropogenic Habitat Alteration [Data set]. University of Michigan - Deep Blue. and Fuller, J., et al. (2021). Shorebird colony collapses under climate driven lake-level rise and anthropogenic stressors. Forthcoming.
- Discipline:
- Science