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Filtering by: Creator Jivani, Aniket Keyword Uncertainty Quantification

Decent Estimate of CME Arrival time from a Data-assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model

Creator:

Chen, Hongfan, Sachdeva, Nishtha, Huang, Zhenguang, van der Holst, Bart, Manchester, Ward, Jivani, Aniket, Zou, Shasha, Chen, Yang, Huan, Xun, and Toth, Gabor

Description:

In this study, we show that coronal mass ejection (CME) simulations conducted with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can be assimilated with SOHO LASCO white-light (WL) coronagraph observations and solar wind observations at L1 prior to the CME eruption to improve the prediction of CME arrival time. L1 observations are used to constrain the background solar wind, while LASCO coronagraph observations filter the initial ensemble simulations by constraining the simulated CME propagation speed. We then construct probabilistic predictions for CME arrival time using the data-assimilated ensemble. Scripts in this work are written in R, Python and Julia.

Keyword:

Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Space Weather

Citation to related publication:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004165

Discipline:

Engineering
Results for "Global Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for Background Solar Wind using the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model"

Creator:

Jivani, Aniket, Sachdeva, Nishtha, Huang, Zhenguang, Chen, Yang, van der Holst, Bart, Manchester, Ward, Iong, Daniel, Chen, Hongfan, Zou, Shasha, Huan, Xun, and Toth, Gabor

Description:

In this work, we perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) for the background solar wind in order to quantify contributions from uncertainty of different model parameters to the variability of in-situ solar wind speed and density at 1au, both of which have a major impact on CME propagation and strength. Scripts written in the Julia language are used to build the PCE and calculate the sensitivity results. Data is available in csv, NetCDF and JLD files. A `Project.toml` file is included to activate and install all required dependencies (See README for details).

Keyword:

Uncertainty Quantification, Space Weather, and Global Sensitivity Analysis

Discipline:

Engineering

Decent Estimate of CME Arrival time from a Data-assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model

Results for "Global Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for Background Solar Wind using the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model"

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Decent Estimate of CME Arrival time from a Data-assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model

Results for "Global Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for Background Solar Wind using the Alfvén Wave Solar Atmosphere Model"

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