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Filtering by: Creator van der Holst, Bart Keyword Data Assimilation

Decent Estimate of CME Arrival time from a Data-assimilated Ensemble in the Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model

Creator:

Chen, Hongfan, Sachdeva, Nishtha, Huang, Zhenguang, van der Holst, Bart, Manchester, Ward, Jivani, Aniket, Zou, Shasha, Chen, Yang, Huan, Xun, and Toth, Gabor

Description:

In this study, we show that coronal mass ejection (CME) simulations conducted with the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) can be assimilated with SOHO LASCO white-light (WL) coronagraph observations and solar wind observations at L1 prior to the CME eruption to improve the prediction of CME arrival time. L1 observations are used to constrain the background solar wind, while LASCO coronagraph observations filter the initial ensemble simulations by constraining the simulated CME propagation speed. We then construct probabilistic predictions for CME arrival time using the data-assimilated ensemble. Scripts in this work are written in R, Python and Julia.

Keyword:

Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Space Weather

Citation to related publication:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004165

Discipline:

Engineering