Anthropogenic climate change will dramatically alter species distributions. The rate and magnitude of range shifts, however, will differ among taxa, resulting in altered patterns of co-occurrence and interspecific interactions. We examined potential climate-mediated breeding range shifts among North American wood-warblers (Parulidae), a speciose avian family likely to be especially impacted by such changes. We used publicly available species distribution model (SDM) range outputs to compare current ranges and patterns of sympatry among warbler species to future ranges and sympatry under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C of average global warming. We used these outputs to calculate average breeding range area, range overlap among species, number of sympatric species, and distances of breeding range shifts. We additionally calculated the number gained and lost sympatric interactions under each warming scenario.
This study investigates the rapid decline of black tern (Chlidonias niger) over eight years in one of Michigan’s largest colonies, Lake St. Clair.
1. Nesting Success Model: A multiple logistic regression with a binomial (logit-link) fit using the glm() function from the ‘stats’ package in R (55) to determine the influence of habitat and biological predictors on nesting survival.
2. ArcMap visualization of Nesting Success: To visualize the geographic extent of the habitat’s potential to predispose nests’ vulnerability, the coefficients and intercept from our selected GLM were applied to raster layers in ArcMap using the Raster Calculator Tool.
3. Population Change & Habitat Extent: To quantify sub-colony breeding pair population size and their response to changes in sub-colony habitat in the geospatial model, we applied a general linear mixed model (GLMM) using the lmer() function from the ‘lme4’ package in R (55). Predictor variables were chosen a priori, and included the area of open water, uninhabitable vegetation (NDVI>0.72), any habitable area, and area with >50% hatch success.
Fuller, J., Rowan, E., Landgraf, A., Alofs, K., Foufopoulos, J., Gronewold, A., (2021). Collapse of a Black Tern Colony (Chlidonias niger) as a Result of Climate Change Driven Lake-Level Extremes and Anthropogenic Habitat Alteration [Data set]. University of Michigan - Deep Blue. and Fuller, J., et al. (2021). Shorebird colony collapses under climate driven lake-level rise and anthropogenic stressors. Forthcoming.
In the dataset, "_T" means temperature effects only, without "_T" means temperature and precipitation effects are both considered, "_co2" means CO2 effects are considered on the based of temperature and precipitation effects.
This archived dataset includes all of the input files that were used to run the model for all the runs in this set, including files containing model parameters and drivers. This dataset also includes all of the model output files from model runs in this set.
Yuan, Y., S. J. Sharp, J. P. Martina, K. J. Elgersma, and W. S. Currie. Sustained-flux global warming potential driven by nitrogen inflow and hydroperiod in a model of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. JGR Biogeosciences in review.
