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Detection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling
dc.contributor.authorLegates, David R.
dc.contributor.authorOutcalt, Samuel I.
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-02T18:55:29Z
dc.date.available2023-08-02 14:55:27en
dc.date.available2022-08-02T18:55:29Z
dc.date.issued2022-07
dc.identifier.citationLegates, David R.; Outcalt, Samuel I. (2022). "Detection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling." International Journal of Climatology 42(9): 4753-4772.
dc.identifier.issn0899-8418
dc.identifier.issn1097-0088
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/173063
dc.description.abstractThe method of Outcalt et al., based on work developed originally by Hurst, is re-examined to evaluate its efficacy in delineating changes in trends and identifying regime shifts in climatic-related time series. This technique is based on the concept of the normalized rescaled running sum where temporal changes in the Hurst exponent can be used to identify climatic trends from one regime to another as each regime has a characteristic distribution that differs from the statistical characteristics of the complete time series. An examination of the temporal change in the amplitude of the normalized rescaled running sum can be used as a method to identify these regime changes, which may be either real (i.e., a true climatic shift) or induced (i.e., through a change in measurement bias, station location, or other nonclimatic influence). Examples shown here focus on examining time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic thaw depth, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, treeflow data from Lees Ferry (AZ), North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency, and central England air temperatures.The method of Outcalt et al. is re-examined to evaluate its efficacy in delineating changes in trends and identifying regime shifts in climatic-related time series. It is based on the normalized rescaled running sum where temporal changes in the Hurst exponent identify climatic trends from one regime to another. Examples focus on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Arctic thaw depth, the Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, treeflow data from Lee’s Ferry, North Atlantic tropical storm frequency, and central England air temperatures.
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
dc.subject.otherArctic thaw depth
dc.subject.othercentral England air temperatures
dc.subject.otherHurst rescaling
dc.subject.otherintegral trace
dc.subject.othernormalized rescaled running sum
dc.subject.otherNorth Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency
dc.subject.otherNorthern Hemisphere snow cover extent
dc.subject.otherPacific Decadal Oscillation
dc.subject.otherTreeflow
dc.titleDetection of climate transitions and discontinuities by Hurst rescaling
dc.typeArticle
dc.rights.robotsIndexNoFollow
dc.subject.hlbsecondlevelNatural Resources and Environment
dc.subject.hlbtoplevelScience
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/173063/1/joc7502_am.pdf
dc.description.bitstreamurlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/173063/2/joc7502.pdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.7502
dc.identifier.sourceInternational Journal of Climatology
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