Work Description

Date: 05 February, 2025

Dataset Title: US Electricity and Natural Gas Decarbonization Pathways

Dataset Contact: [email protected]

Dataset Creators:
Name: Yongxian Zhu
Email: [email protected]
Institution: Argonne National Laboratory Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis (ESIA) division
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0257-5014

Name: Sidi Deng
Email: [email protected]
Institution: University of Michigan Department of Mechanical Engineering
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9234-1952

Name: Daniel R Cooper
Email: [email protected]
Institution: University of Michigan Department of Mechanical Engineering
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2903-0468

Funding:
- The Department of Energy, under the Award Number DE-EE0007897 (20-01-DE-4030)
- The Climate Imperative Foundation

Nomenclature:
- GREET: Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (https://greet.anl.gov/)
- EIA: U.S. Energy Information Administration
- IRA: Inflation Reduction Act
- NREL: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
- AEO: Annual Energy Outlook
- EF: Emission Factor

Key Points:
- The projected U.S. electricity generation mixes (i.e., energy consumption breakdown by power sources) under different scenarios from 2022 to 2050.
- The resulting trajectory of grid emission factors (gCO2/kWh electricity delivered) under each scenario from 2022 to 2050, calculated based on Argonne’s GREET model.
- The scenarios include a reference case based on the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2023, three IRA alternatives (no, low, and high uptake), and NREL’s 100% clean electricity scenario.

Research Overview:
This dataset is curated as a byproduct of the "Material and Vehicle Design for High-Value Recycling of Aluminum and Steel Automotive Sheet" project, funded by the REMADE Institute of the Department of Energy and referred to as the "Clean Sheet Project" in the file "electricity scenarios slides.pptx." The dataset presents projected U.S. electricity emission factors (MJ primary energy or gCO2/kWh electricity delivered) under various scenarios, including different levels of uptake of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. The projections are based on estimated trends in the U.S. electricity generation mix, along with the authors' analysis of the energy and emission intensities of relevant power sources. The dataset supports research—particularly life cycle assessment—relying on U.S. regional energy profile and emissions factors.

Methodology:
This Excel dataset contains projected U.S. electricity generation mixes under different scenarios and the corresponding trajectories of grid emission factors. The data sources and methodology are detailed in the deposited files.
The breakdown and trends of the U.S. electricity mix under different scenarios were extracted from the EIA Annual Energy Outlook and curated to align with the GREET model developed by Argonne National Lab. The primary energy and emission intensities for electricity generation by fuel type were sourced from the GREET model. Using these inputs, the author calculated the aggregate energy and emission factors of the U.S. grid as time-series data from 2022 to 2050.

Instrument and/or Software specifications: NA

Files contained here:
(1) 2024 electricity and Natural Gas emission factors.xlsx
This Excel workbook is the main dataset, which contains the following tabs:
- EF results only: Emission factor (EF) results only (see calculation in linked tab: EF calculation from GREET
- EF calculation from GREET: Formatted electricity mix for input into GREET1, EF read from GREET1 for every 5 years, extrapolated EFs
- Electricity mix AEO2023: Electricity mix calculation from AEO2023
- Electricity mix AEO2023 LowIRA: Electricity mix calculation from AEO2023
- Electricity mix AEO2023 highIR: Electricity mix calculation from AEO2023
- Electricity mix AEO2023 noIRA: Electricity mix calculation from AEO2023
- Renewable AEO2023: Renewable electricity mix (other mix in AEO 2023) calculation from AEO2023
(2) Electricity emission scenario summary.docx
This document summarizes the necessary data source and methods to project future US electricity emission factors (MJ primary energy or gCO2/kWh electricity delivered) under various scenarios.
(3) electricity scenarios slides.pptx
Results of US electricity emissions factors based on GREET 2023 and AEO 2023.
(4) Energy_Prices_Industrial_EIA.xlsx
Estimated price trajectories of different power sources from 2022 to 2050 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Columns representing time-series data that the creators consider commonly used — natural gas, coal, and electricity mix — are highlighted with borders.

Related publication(s): NA

Use and Access:
This data set is made available under a Creative Commons Public Domain license (CC0 1.0).

To Cite Data:
Zhu, Y., Deng, S., Cooper, D. R. US Electricity and Natural Gas Decarbonization Pathways [Data set], University of Michigan - Deep Blue Data. https://doi.org/10.7302/qxqq-dx66