Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

Abstract

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third‐generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi‐Input Single‐Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind‐magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low‐energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.Key PointsA set of electron flux forecast models is deduced for energy ranges sampled by GOES 13The deduced models forecasting performance statistics are detailedThe models will be implemented as a real‐time forecasting tool